THE CASE FORFUSION.
Begin with the 48-hour monthly draft. Then layer continuous fusion for earlier signals and fewer blind spots.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS.
Post-event analyses of major TSF failures show precursory signals that continuous, fused monitoring is built to catch.
Brumadinho
Post-event studies show precursory deformation and forecastability on the order of weeks to months using routine satellite time series. The failure occurred by static liquefaction with no discrete short-term trigger. Multiple InSAR analyses revealed accelerating deformation patterns weeks before the collapse — early-warning signals that periodic manual inspections could not provide.
Cadia
Satellite time series identified accelerating deformation months ahead of the failure event. Post-event analyses showed clear displacement patterns that could have triggered investigation and intervention under continuous monitoring — and demonstrated the value of pairing surface deformation with subsurface instrumentation for the full stability picture.
Fusion Works
Not all failure modes show surface precursors, which is why fusing InSAR, piezometers, GNSS, and bathymetry is critical. Each stream sees differently: InSAR captures broad surface deformation, piezometers track pore pressure, GNSS delivers precise point measurements, bathymetry monitors pond dynamics. Fusing them reduces false negatives and speeds decisions.
02 / 02 — References & Technical Sources
- Thomas, A., et al. (2023). "A hybrid data-driven approach to analyze the drivers of lake level dynamics." Communications Earth & Environment, Nature
- Gama, F. F., et al. (2019). "Monitoring subsidence of open pit iron mines at Carajas Province based on SBAS-InSAR technique." Remote Sensing of Environment
- Carle, T., et al. (2019). "Perspectives on the prediction of catastrophic slope failures from satellite InSAR." Scientific Reports, Nature
- Expert Panel Report (2019). "Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundao Dam." Cleary Gottlieb for Vale S.A.
- ICOLD Bulletin 181 (2019). "Tailings Dam Design - Technology Update." International Commission on Large Dams.