Evidence

Begin with the 48-hour monthly draft. Then layer continuous fusion for earlier signals and fewer blind spots.

Case studies demonstrating the value of continuous monitoring and data fusion for tailings safety.

Brumadinho (2019)

Post-event studies show precursory deformation and forecastability on the order of weeks to months using routine satellite time series. The failure occurred by static liquefaction with no discrete short-term trigger. Multiple InSAR analyses revealed accelerating deformation patterns weeks before the collapse, demonstrating that continuous monitoring could have provided critical early warning signals. The tragedy underscored the limitations of periodic manual inspections and the urgent need for automated, continuous monitoring systems.

Cadia (2018)

Satellite time series identified accelerating deformation months ahead of the failure event. Post-event analyses showed clear displacement patterns that could have triggered investigation and intervention if continuous monitoring had been in place. The case demonstrates the value of combining surface deformation monitoring with subsurface instrumentation to capture the full picture of dam stability. Continuous kinematics monitoring can provide the lead time necessary for preventive action.

Fusion Works

Not all failure modes show surface precursors, which is why fusing InSAR, piezometers, GNSS, and bathymetry is critical. Each data stream offers a different perspective: InSAR captures broad surface deformation, piezometers track pore pressure changes, GNSS delivers precise point measurements, and bathymetry monitors pond dynamics. Combining these complementary sources reduces false negatives, speeds decision-making, and creates a comprehensive monitoring solution.

References & Technical Sources

  • Thomas, A., et al. (2023). "A hybrid data-driven approach to analyze the drivers of lake level dynamics." Communications Earth & Environment, Nature
  • Gama, F. F., et al. (2019). "Monitoring subsidence of open pit iron mines at Carajas Province based on SBAS-InSAR technique." Remote Sensing of Environment
  • Carle, T., et al. (2019). "Perspectives on the prediction of catastrophic slope failures from satellite InSAR." Scientific Reports, Nature
  • Expert Panel Report (2019). "Report on the Immediate Causes of the Failure of the Fundao Dam." Cleary Gottlieb for Vale S.A.
  • ICOLD Bulletin 181 (2019). "Tailings Dam Design - Technology Update." International Commission on Large Dams.
  • Note: Fusion of multiple monitoring streams does not guarantee prevention of all failures but significantly reduces blind spots and improves response time for risk mitigation.